Information Chaos: The Elections We’re Watching Around the Globe in 2022

Written by Eliza Thompson

For those interested in the battle of information integrity around elections, this week’s still undecided national election in Kenya is one to watch as observers note the presence of politically charged misinformation, highlighting accusations of vote-rigging and election fraud. However, Kenya is but one example of the divisive media environments defining elections today. From misinformation to active manipulation by both domestic and foreign political actors, elections across the world are plagued by information chaos. We’ve compiled a list of upcoming fall elections to monitor that demonstrate the vulnerability of information environments today.

Italy 

Italy will hold an early election in September after the resignation of Prime Minister Draghi and the subsequent dissolution of parliament by President Mattarella. Polls to date suggest a conservative alliance is on course for victory, with the far-right party Brothers of Italy predicted to make substantial gains in parliament. 

The election presents an opportunity for both domestic and foreign actors looking to prop up candidates who will support their political interests. One of the most high-profile of these actors is Vladimir Putin, as the election presents a chance for Putin to shift Italy’s policy on Ukraine to his benefit. There are growing concerns over Kremlin influence operations aimed at putting pro-Putin sympathizers into office. This risks further muddling an election environment where suspicions are already high due to accusations of Russian involvement in the recent collapse of the government.

Brazil 

Brazil’s upcoming presidential election in October may be one of the most important in recent decades. Already, the volume of misinformation and the increasing use of difficult to monitor platforms such as Telegram have helped create an environment ripe for manipulation. In fact, the amount of content fact checked by AFP increased by more than fourfold from January to June, with disinformation focusing on fomenting distrust in the electoral system. 

President Bolsonaro, who is running for reelection and facing decreasing popularity in the polls, kicked off his campaign by warning of election fraud and criticizing the electoral system. Observers have accused Bolsonaro of setting up a team of advisors who engage in spreading falsehoods around the electoral process and who target opponents with disinformation. These concerns build on earlier ones about the use of Facebook and WhatsApp in Brazil to spread political disinformation, as was the case with Covid-19 related disinformation. While Bolsonaro’s actions demonstrate the real risk of domestic influence campaigns seeking to manipulate voter behavior and spread misleading information, it remains to be seen how strongly his claims will resonate as Brazilians head to the polls in October.

Bulgaria

Bulgaria is headed to its third election since April 2021, likely to take place in October, after the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) announced it had failed to form a government following the resignation of Prime Minister Kiril Petkov in June 2022. The country has previously seen high levels of event-driven disinformation, such as around Covid-19 vaccines, and its geographical location leaves it vulnerable to geopolitical influence campaigns, especially from Russia. Researchers have found evidence of the Kremlin using fake accounts and propaganda to spread fears in the country about Ukrainian refugees and rising fuel and food prices.

This, coupled with the fact that Bulgaria has one of the lowest levels of trust for the government among citizens in Europe, leaves the country vulnerable to election disinformation. Additionally, the country has low levels of media literacy and pro-Russia propaganda is prevalent across local media outlets and social media. Politically motivated actors both domestically and internationally may seek to exploit these factors and the existing disinformation infrastructure. 

United States

The 2022 U.S. midterm election comes at a time when the majority of Americans believe democracy is in crisis or at risk of failing, and political actors are weaponizing social media and local community leaders to further degrade public trust in elections. Recent reports highlight the spread of misinformation and raise concerns over the use of grassroot methods such as local events to spread false narratives and erode trust in the democratic process. There is also concern over disinformation campaigns targeting Spanish-speaking communities that may take advantage of information gaps around voting rights. Additionally, there is renewed concern over Russian efforts to erode public trust in election security, including by leveraging potential operational challenges around local elections to spread misleading information on election fraud. 

Local officials are already actively countering disinformation in preparation for the midterms, including through in-person outreach and educational campaigns on the internet, TV, radio and billboards. For example, officials are amplifying factual information about election systems ahead of the elections to try and pre-bunk misinformation. Fact-checkers are also paying particular attention to misleading public remarks or ads on the economy and inflation, as voters often prioritize domestic issues in the lead up to the midterms. The coming months will reveal the impact of these efforts and others in the face of declining trust in the U.S. election system.  

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